Eurointelligence.com Website Review

In the midst of predictable sound and fury, we were struck by a couple of developments that might tell us how the Brexit standoff could eventually be resolved. During the hours before the announcement of Theresa May’s uncomfortably narrow 200 to 117 victory in the Tories’ confidence vote, she had a 45-minute conversation with Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds, leader and parliamentary leader of the DUP respectively. When we listened to Dodds last night, we noted a change in tone. He was not only polite, but also appeared to have dropped the specific demand of a formal change in the withdrawal treaty and now seems content with more general changes that would satisfy the DUP’s demands. This is a big step. What matters to the DUP and to May herself is that there must be a clear commitment by the EU that the backstop is temporary. It is possible that the EU and the UK may agree a form of words this week, but it is perhaps more probable that talks go down to the wire and extend well into the early months of next year. If language can be found to accommodate the DUP’s position, we would expect the internal Tory opposition to the deal to Yesterday’s Tory leadership vote was a secret ballot. At least one of the 117 who voted against the Prime Minister already said he would now support her. The Daily Mail and the Daily Express are, for once, united in their support for May, and were calling on MPs to get on with it. Not everybody who cast a secret vote against May yesterday will want to choose the more public display of voting in the No lobby when the meaningful vote finally comes. Support by the DUP is essential. May needs the DUP in order to govern. Her government would fall if parliament were to approve a deal the DUP rejects. If she succeeds, we would expect the old rule-of-thumb for parliamentary rebellions to reappear: the actual size of rebellion is usually one quarter of what it appears to be in the beginning. So we are looking at 25-30 die-hard Tory rebels who will clearly not support May’s deal whatever the DUP decides. She would, of course,